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NEWS



Suspicions growing that Castro is terminally ill

Carmen Gentile, THE WASHINGTON TIMES

23 November 2006

The Washington Times

Recent photos and videos of a visibly frail Fidel Castro combined with signs he is not recovering from surgery as quickly as expected are feeding a wave of speculation that the longtime Cuban president is in the throes of a terminal ailment.

For weeks after his late July transfer of authority to his brother, Defense Minister Raul Castro, Fidel Castro and his most trusted officials asserted that the father of Cuba's communist revolution would resume the mantle of authority once he recovered from what has been described vaguely as gastrointestinal surgery.

But Cuba's foreign minister backed away last week from earlier predictions that Mr. Castro would go back to work in early December, and the vice president yesterday was unable even to confirm that Mr. Castro would be well enough to attend his own birthday celebration on Dec. 2

"It's a subject on which I don't want to speculate," Foreign Minister Felipe Perez Roque told the Associated Press in Havana, though he maintained that the government was "optimistic" about Mr. Castro's recovery.

Mr. Castro's health has been declared a Cuban state secret, leaving the U.S. intelligence and medical community to sift through minor clues about his true condition.

Particular attention is being paid to a recently released video showing Mr. Castro, gaunt and noticeably thinner than in earlier pictures, moving about awkwardly in the multicolored jumpsuit that has replaced his trademark military garb.

U.S. officials quoted by the Associated Press have speculated, at least partly based on the video, that Mr. Castro is suffering from stomach, pancreatic or some other form of cancer that is largely inoperable. They said they did not expect him to survive beyond the end of next year.

Bush administration officials refused to comment publicly on Mr. Castro's health, but Dr. Pedro Greer, chief of gastroenterology at Mercy Hospital in Miami, told The Washington Times that he thinks Mr. Castro's final days are only months away.

Like other physicians, Dr. Greer noted that if Mr. Castro were undergoing chemotherapy, his hair and trademark beard would have fallen out by now. Were that the case, his death might be delayed by up to 18 months.

But without it, "his [Castro's] prognosis is very poor, at best," said Dr. Greer, who has seen the video and photos published in Cuba's state-run newspaper Granma.

"Optimistically, the reality of the matter is he has months to live at best," he said.

Dr. Greer was unwilling to comment on published news reports speculating that Mr. Castro's loose-fitting attire concealed a colostomy bag.

Castro allies reject all such speculation, insisting that the 80- year-old who has led his country since the Eisenhower administration is on the mend.

"The only thing I can tell you is that he's recuperating," said Mr. Castro's eldest son, Fidel Castro Diaz-Balart, earlier this month.

But Castro watchers in the United States are increasingly convinced that the ailing president will not return to work.

Among those who have concluded that Mr. Castro is terminally ill is Brian Latell, a former Latin American specialist with the CIA, now a researcher at the University of Miami and author of a book about the Castro brothers.

"I wouldn't want to do anything as macabre as predict just when he's going to die, but it seems to me, it will be sooner rather than later," Mr. Latell said.

Caption: A billboard of Cuban President Fidel Castro declares that "we're on the good track," but some doctors in the U.S. say recent images of him suggest that he has a terminal illness. [Photo by Agence France-Presse/Getty Images]



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